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With nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has begun the season with incredible momentum.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a season - he scored 11 goals in his opening seven appearances in the 2022-23 season and 10 last season - it nevertheless places him with a three-goal lead in the initial race for this campaign's English top-flight Golden Boot.

What makes this none of his nine goals have been spot-kicks makes it even more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Certainly, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the honor so early in the season.

First, the number of goals he has already scored - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's receiving.

Furthermore, the modest opening his typical competitors for the prize have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) indicates how many goals a top-flight footballer has historically scored from the number and quality of opportunities he's received.

This isn't a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistics boffins, but by Premier League history.

When examining at players' xG in the Premier League so far this campaign from open play, the Norwegian striker is obtaining considerably more excellent scoring situations to score than any other player.

In fact, even if Haaland were no better at finishing chances than anyone else in the division, he would still have scored over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Opportunity Analysis

This is shown by analyzing the total and standard of chances that footballers have received in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this campaign, twelve additional compared to any other player.

Interestingly, this is not particularly unusual for him - he had actually taken more non-penalty shots at this point in the most recent two terms (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).

What's particularly remarkable even by his standards is the quality of chances he has had this term. His efforts have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.

This number represents is that players have historically converted the shots he has had at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Among footballers attempting at ten or more efforts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to score on average - due to a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of an average of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 expected goals per effort he had at the start of last season.

In short, the opportunities he has had in this campaign have been notably easier to convert from in a reorganised City team than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Previous Season Assessment

Beginning a campaign so strongly is, as mentioned above, not unusual for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last season he had netted ten times - four additional compared to any other player and six more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Reds attacker who won the Golden Boot with twenty-nine strikes, seven more than the Manchester City striker.

This season, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Indeed this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Pharaohs star has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has opened quietly either. When examining at the top 11 scorers in the English top division last season, Haaland has scored as many goals as the additional ten attackers put together so far.

Be it because of physical problems - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - protracted transfer stories in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their sides have underperformed (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's probable competitors in the contest for the top scorer award have not fired so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Even as Haaland seems the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the European top scorer prize that is awarded to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's top-five leagues?

That race is considerably more open at this opening period because two elite attackers have similarly opened in excellent condition, with eleven and nine strikes respectively.

The fact Haaland has scored so many times and has the highest xG of the trio without having taken any spot-kicks makes him the favourite.

But since the English and French stars are two of the best converters in continental soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the competition remains open.